Since the 2010s migrant crisis, the issue of changing religious and cultural demographics has become a point of political contention in Cyprus as well as other European countries, particularly for right-wing parties.
The Cyprus Investigative Reporting Network (CIReN) examined recent claims by Paphos Mayor Phedonas Phedonos that the island of Cyprus is currently populated by 60% Christians and 40% Muslims, and that in 2037 this will be 49% Christians and 51% Muslims.
CIReN used the latest available census data and population projections, as well as its own calculations based on these figures to conduct a fact-check and issued its verdict.
The Claim
During a wide-ranging interview on the show “Aichmes” aired on the Omega TV Channel on June 2, 2025, Paphos Mayor Phedonas Phedonos, when discussing issues related to the Cyprus problem, stated that “at this moment, the island of Cyprus is populated by 60% Christians and 40% Muslims”. “In 2037 we will be 49% Christians and 51% Muslims”, he added, referring to the example of Lebanon and the historical changes to the different demographic groups there in favor of Muslims.
The Facts
The latest census with information about the religious breakdown in the Republic of Cyprus was done in 2021. The total population was 923,381. According to this census, Christians of varying denominations represented 77.76% (718,067) of the reported religions of inhabitants of RoC, with Muslims accounting for 2.12% (19,534). An additional 17.31% of respondents (159,835 people) had no religion recorded or stated in their response. For the purposes of this fact-check, we will use these percentages as a basis for our calculations.
The latest population census carried out in the north was in 2011. The 2011 census, which was undertaken with unofficial United Nations supervision, recorded a population of 286,257. The 2011 census in north Cyprus though did not include a question about religion.
According to projections prepared by the Statistical Institute in the northern part of Cyprus in December 2023, the north’s population was projected as being 476,214 for the same year. Since official data on the inhabitants of north Cyprus’ religious affiliations is currently unavailable, we will assume that the whole population of north Cyprus is Muslim for the purposes of this fact-check.
The projected population for the RoC for 2023 as calculated by the government’s Statistical Service was 966,400. Using the proportion of Muslims in the last RoC census, which was 2.12%, we will assume that of these 966,400 people, 20,488 are Muslims.
If we add the projected 2023 population for north Cyprus with the projection for the same year for the RoC we get a total population of 1,442,579 for the whole island. Even if we assume that 100% of the population of north Cyprus is Muslim, this would give us a total of 496,702 Muslims on the island, which would be around 34% of the total inhabitants.
| Projected Population | Projected Christian population | Percentage | Projected Muslim | Percentage | |
| Republic of Cyprus | 966,400 | 744,128 | 77.77% | 20,488 | 2.12% |
| North Cyprus | 476,214 | 0 | 0% | 476,214 | 100% |
| Total | 1,442,579 | 744,128 | 51.5% | 496,702 | 34.4% |
2023 projected population break-down based on religion
Given the fact that 20% of the RoC inhabitants questioned in the 2021 census (185,780 people) declared a religious affiliation other than Christian or Muslim, or no affiliation at all, Phedonos’s claim of a current 60%-40% split between Christians and Muslims on the island clearly seems to be false.
This group (those that were neither Muslim nor Christian) was also the group that had the largest growth between the 2011 and 2021 census data further countering Phedonos’s claims regarding the split between these two religions on the island.
What about Phedonos’ claims for 2037?
To make an estimated projection for the number of Muslims in 2037, we used the growth rate of the Muslim population of Cyprus between 2011 and 2023.
According to projections prepared by experts advising the Cyprus government on the Social Insurance Scheme, the Republic of Cyprus is projected to have a population of around 1,110,845 people in 2037.
If we assume that the Muslim population of the Republic of Cyprus would continue to grow at the same rate that it has between the 2011 and 2021, which represented an increase of 426 people per year, this would add 6,816 Muslims to the RoC population by 2037. This would result in a total of 26,350 Muslims in the RoC for 2037 or 2.3% of the population.
Assuming that the population in the northern part of Cyprus would continue to grow at the same rate as projected between 2011 and 2023, this would add 15,109 people each year to the population, resulting in an additional 211,526 people by 2037. This would give north Cyprus an estimated/projected population of 687,740 in 2037.
Adding these two projections (RoC and north Cyprus) together, we can assume that the total population for the whole island would be 1,798,585 for the year 2037.
When we add up these two numbers (north Cyprus projected population for 2037 and projected total for Muslim population for RoC) we get a total Muslim population of 714,490.
Assuming the same growth in the Christian population of Cyprus that happened between 2011 and 2021 would also occur in the period up to 2037, there would be an additional 5,874 Christians per year, or 93,984 added during this period. This would result in a total Christian population of 812,051 – much higher than the 694,556 estimated population of Muslims for the island in 2037.
To put these numbers in percentage terms, in 2037, of a total projected population of 1,798,585, it is estimated that 46% would be Christians, while 40% would be Muslims.
These calculations too assume that all inhabitants in the north are Muslims. Considering that there are non-Muslims living in the northern part of Cyprus, the percentage of Muslims would be even less.
| Projected Population (2037) | Projected Christian population | Projected Muslim Population | |
| Republic of Cyprus | 1,110,845 | 812,051 | 26,350 |
| North Cyprus | 687,740 | N/A | N/A |
| Total | 1,798,585 |
Projected population data and religious demographics for 2037
While there is no available official data related to the rates of atheism or non-religious individuals in north Cyprus, several academic papers on the subject indicate a strong secular identity among the Turkish Cypriot community.
In addition the documented growth of foreign property owners in north Cyprus, in particular from the UK, Israel and Russia in recent years, would certainly suggest that the percentage of Muslims in north Cyprus is much lower than the overwhelming majority previously considered by sociologists.
The claim by Phedonos splitting Cyprus into Christians and Muslims fails to take into account other religions as well as secular, atheistic or agnostic individuals in the population of north Cyprus, for which precise numbers are not available.
Migration data in Cyprus remain an issue of close observation in the coming years, according to experts. Politicians are tempted to make unfounded projections that fail to take into account the impact of other factors such as the trend of increasing numbers of non Christians and non Muslims (such as Israeli and Chinese nationals relocating to Cyprus) and the decreasing number of asylum seekers – mainly Muslims from Syria that are relocated in other EU countries or wish voluntarily to return to their homeland in the post Assad regime.
The Verdict: False
Paphos Mayor Phedonas Phedonos’ claim that the island of Cyprus is currently populated by 60% Christians and 40% Muslims, and that in 2037 this will be 49% Christians and 51% Muslims is demonstrably false based on the latest available census data and population projections for the Republic of Cyprus and north Cyprus.
Even when assuming the entirety of the north Cyprus population is Muslim, due to lack of available official data on religious affiliation there, the Muslim population does not add up to 40% of the entire island’s population. Phedonos’ claim also ignores the inhabitants of the island on both sides, who have religious affiliations that are neither Christian nor Muslim or those who have no religious affiliation at all.
In terms of Phedonos predictions for the year 2037, even assuming continued population growth in north Cyprus and the Republic of Cyprus that would match the growth between available censuses and current population estimates, the Christian population of Cyprus would continue to outnumber the Muslim population of the island in 2037. This would make his claim of a 51% Muslim, 49% Christian split false based on available data and projections.
Phedonos’ projections for the future also fail to take into account the non-Christian, non-Muslim population of the island in suggesting the split he has made.
While Phedonos claims do not hold up under scrutiny using available official census data and our projections for the future, it is likely the claims are more politically motivated rather than based on any kind of verifiable data.
This project is supported by the European Media and Information Fund (EMIF). The sole responsibility for any content supported by the European Media and Information Fund lies with the authors and it may not necessarily reflect the positions of the EMIF and the Fund Partners, the Calouste Gulbenkian Foundation and the European University Institute.
